AHLDashboard
Wednesday, December 3

Calgary Wranglers at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

Calgary Wranglers
1:2
Final / SO
Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

CGYABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
21%79%
xG
1.93.5
High danger
26
Chances
712
Shots
2429

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ABB above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 62% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal29
7Scoring chances12
2High-danger chances6
1.90Expected goals3.53

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st91125120.71.5
2nd111043110.91.0
3rd3513020.20.7
OT1301010.10.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ABB−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ABB116:56 of the 3rd3:042:14+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
29
Saves
28
Allowed
1
xGA
3.53
GSAx
+2.53
Shots faced
24
Saves
23
Allowed
1
xGA
1.90
GSAx
+0.90

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 16:32Justin Kirkland (1–0)high · 8 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
  • 2nd 19:36Penalty
  • 3rd 18:03Penalty
  • 3rd 19:10Danila Klimovich (1–1)5v4 · high · 9 ft · beat Owen Say