Springfield Thunderbirds at Hartford Wolf Pack

PeoplesBank Arena · Hartford, CT

Springfield Thunderbirds

2:5

Final

Hartford Wolf Pack

The sheet

SPRHFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

56%44%

xG: 4.23.3
High danger: 79
Chances: 1812
Shots: 3630

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HFD above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% HFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal30

18Scoring chances12

7High-danger chances9

4.22Expected goals3.30

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–7	3–3	0–3	0.6–0.8
2nd	12–13	6–7	4–4	1.5–1.6
3rd	18–10	9–2	3–2	2.1–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SPR	2	14:15 of the 3rd	5:45	5:45	+0.025 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 34
Allowed: 2
xGA: 4.22
GSAx: +2.22

Vadim Zherenko

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 25
Allowed: 5
xGA: 3.30
GSAx: -1.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:12Gabe Perreault (0–1)high · 6 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 3:29Kalle Väisänen (0–2)high · 7 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 6:56Penalty
2nd 8:07Penalty
2nd 8:53Penalty
2nd 12:14Casey Fitzgerald (0–3)medium · 12 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
2nd 12:53Penalty
2nd 12:53Penalty
2nd 13:29Theo Lindstein (1–3)medium · 15 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 16:45Chris Wagner (2–3)high · 4 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 16:56Penalty
3rd 14:15Gabe Perreault (2–4)high · 8 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko
3rd 18:12Penalty
3rd 18:57Brendan Brisson (2–5)empty net · high · 10 ft · beat Vadim Zherenko