Milwaukee Admirals at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Milwaukee Admirals

4:6

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

MILCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

53%47%

xG: 4.03.2
High danger: 66
Chances: 1113
Shots: 4227

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal27

11Scoring chances13

6High-danger chances6

3.95Expected goals3.18

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–11	2–6	0–2	0.6–1.2
2nd	15–10	5–4	2–3	1.7–1.3
3rd	18–6	4–3	4–1	1.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Amir Miftakhov

Shots faced: 42
Saves: 38
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.95
GSAx: -0.05

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 14
Saves: 11
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.88
GSAx: -1.12

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 10
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.29
GSAx: -1.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:11Bradly Nadeau (0–1)low · 35 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 10:30Penalty
1st 12:06Skyler Brind’Amour (0–2)5v4 · medium · 23 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 12:38Penalty
1st 13:37Joakim Kemell (1–2)5v4 · medium · 31 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
1st 16:01Justin Robidas (1–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 4:30Justin Robidas (1–4)low · 30 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 8:44Ryan Ufko (2–4)medium · 8 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
2nd 9:54Penalty
2nd 12:13Penalty
2nd 18:16Penalty
3rd 12:10Bradly Nadeau (2–5)high · 15 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 12:21Aleksi Heimosalmi (2–6)low · 30 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
3rd 14:11Penalty
3rd 14:54Daniel Carr (3–6)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
3rd 17:23Penalty
3rd 17:59Daniel Carr (4–6)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov