Colorado Eagles at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Colorado Eagles

5:3

Final

Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

COLRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

35%65%

xG: 2.73.3
High danger: 46
Chances: 812
Shots: 3229

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

RFD above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 31% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal29

8Scoring chances12

4High-danger chances6

2.67Expected goals3.25

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–9	2–5	1–2	0.9–1.1
2nd	14–8	4–2	2–1	1.2–0.7
3rd	8–12	2–5	1–3	0.6–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
RFD	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	3:28	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Laurent Brossoit

Shots faced: 32
Saves: 27
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.67
GSAx: -2.33

Isak Posch

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.25
GSAx: +0.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:22Jayson Megna (1–0)low · 57 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
1st 16:11Penalty
1st 17:16Jayson Megna (2–0)5v4 · grade A · 28 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
1st 18:01Penalty
2nd 9:01Penalty
2nd 13:38Samuel Savoie (2–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Isak Posch
2nd 19:10Penalty
3rd 1:14Matthew Stienburg (3–1)medium · 32 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
3rd 1:54Samuel Savoie (3–2)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Isak Posch
3rd 10:59Keaton Middleton (4–2)low · slap · 58 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
3rd 12:33Dmitry Kuzmin (4–3)low · 61 ft · beat Isak Posch
3rd 18:18Jayson Megna (5–3)empty net · low · 91 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
3rd 19:31Penalty