Grand Rapids Griffins at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Grand Rapids Griffins

3:2

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

GRTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

70%30%

xG: 2.82.4
High danger: 72
Chances: 1013
Shots: 2925

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal25

10Scoring chances13

7High-danger chances2

2.81Expected goals2.44

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–6	5–5	5–1	1.2–0.7
2nd	9–11	4–3	2–1	0.9–0.9
3rd	11–8	1–5	0–0	0.7–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vyacheslav Peksa

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.81
GSAx: -0.19

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 23
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.44
GSAx: +0.44

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:17Penalty
1st 17:15Alex Nylander (0–1)high · 5 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
1st 19:17Eduards Tralmaks (1–1)high · 13 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
2nd 7:41Penalty
2nd 8:25Sheldon Dries (2–1)5v4 · high · 7 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
2nd 19:23Marc Johnstone (2–2)high · 15 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
3rd 4:12Penalty
3rd 9:30Michael Brandsegg-Nygård (3–2)low · 20 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
3rd 14:09Penalty