Manitoba Moose at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Manitoba Moose

0:3

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

MBIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

73%27%

xG: 3.52.4
High danger: 73
Chances: 1610
Shots: 3028

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal28

16Scoring chances10

7High-danger chances3

3.46Expected goals2.35

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–7	3–3	2–0	0.8–0.6
2nd	9–13	5–3	3–1	1.2–1.0
3rd	13–8	8–4	2–2	1.4–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 30
Allowed: 0
xGA: 3.46
GSAx: +3.46

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.35
GSAx: -0.65

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:53Penalty
1st 9:30Penalty
1st 9:30Penalty
1st 16:21Penalty
1st 17:38Penalty
1st 18:26Penalty
2nd 2:41Nicolas Aubé-Kubel (0–1)low · 31 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 3:43Penalty
2nd 3:43Penalty
2nd 4:36Penalty
2nd 8:38Penalty
2nd 14:21Penalty
3rd 2:29Penalty
3rd 9:37Bradley Marek (0–2)medium · 20 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 14:06Penalty
3rd 17:59Carson Lambos (0–3)empty net · low · 148 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis