Laval Rocket at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Laval Rocket

3:4

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

LAVBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

42%58%

xG: 2.62.8
High danger: 34
Chances: 816
Shots: 2924

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineLAV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 40% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

29Shots on goal24

8Scoring chances16

3High-danger chances4

2.60Expected goals2.84

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–8	2–5	0–1	0.6–0.9
2nd	10–4	3–2	1–2	1.0–0.5
3rd	12–12	3–9	2–1	1.1–1.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LAV	1	17:37 of the 3rd	2:23	2:23	+0.050 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jackson Parsons

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.60
GSAx: -0.40

Jacob Fowler

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 16
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.08
GSAx: +1.08

Kaapo Kähkönen

Shots faced: 7
Saves: 4
Allowed: 3
xGA: 0.75
GSAx: -2.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:08Scott Harrington (0–1)low · slap · 39 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
1st 3:43Penalty
1st 6:31Jorian Donovan (0–2)low · wrist · 47 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
1st 11:07Philippe Daoust (0–3)medium · snap · 31 ft · beat Kaapo Kähkönen
1st 12:50Penalty
1st 15:21Penalty
1st 16:40Penalty
1st 17:45Penalty
2nd 0:26Joshua Roy (1–3)low · 36 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
2nd 4:12Penalty
2nd 11:25Penalty
2nd 12:12Alex Belzile (2–3)5v4 · high · wrist · 21 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
2nd 14:56Alex Belzile (3–3)medium · wrist · 15 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
3rd 3:54Penalty
3rd 7:54Penalty
3rd 12:50Penalty
3rd 15:47Penalty
3rd 17:37Garrett Pilon (3–4)5v4 · medium · tip · 11 ft · beat Jacob Fowler