Utica Comets at Lehigh Valley Phantoms

PPL Center · Allentown, PA

Utica Comets

2:3

Final / OT

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

The sheet

UTCLVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

62%38%

xG: 3.23.0
High danger: 32
Chances: 128
Shots: 3533

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

LV above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% LV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal33

12Scoring chances8

3High-danger chances2

3.21Expected goals3.00

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–12	4–4	1–1	1.1–1.3
2nd	6–16	3–4	1–1	0.7–1.5
3rd	17–4	5–0	1–0	1.4–0.2
OT	0–1	0–0	0–0	0.0–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:37	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carson Bjarnason

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.21
GSAx: +1.21

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 30
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.00
GSAx: -0.00

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:59Penalty
1st 5:23Zayde Wisdom (0–1)grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Nico Daws
1st 15:10Adam Ginning (0–2)low · 27 ft · beat Nico Daws
1st 20:00Penalty
2nd 3:48Penalty
2nd 3:48Penalty
2nd 4:27Penalty
2nd 8:02Penalty
2nd 8:02Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
2nd 20:00Penalty
3rd 2:08Dmitry Osipov (1–2)low · 57 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
3rd 14:12Penalty
3rd 17:31Penalty
3rd 18:33Kyle Criscuolo (2–2)4v5 · medium · 26 ft · beat Carson Bjarnason
OT 0:58Penalty
OT 0:58Alex Bump (2–3)low · 19 ft · beat Nico Daws