AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 6

Colorado Eagles at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Colorado Eagles
2:1
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

COLRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
45%55%
xG
2.22.4
High danger
33
Chances
911
Shots
2625

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.522.5P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineCOL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 31% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal25
9Scoring chances11
3High-danger chances3
2.23Expected goals2.41

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st8–125–52–21.0–1.2
2nd12–63–40–00.8–0.6
3rd6–71–21–10.4–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

RFD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
RFD116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Drew Commesso
Shots faced
26
Saves
24
Allowed
2
xGA
2.23
GSAx
+0.23
Isak Posch
Shots faced
25
Saves
24
Allowed
1
xGA
2.41
GSAx
+1.41

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:32Taylor Makar (1–0)low · 13 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 1st 6:20Penalty
  • 1st 11:13Penalty
  • 1st 15:34Penalty
  • 1st 15:59Penalty
  • 1st 17:11Taylor Makar (2–0)medium · 34 ft · beat Drew Commesso
  • 2nd 2:14Samuel Savoie (2–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 2nd 8:41Penalty
  • 2nd 11:36Penalty
  • 2nd 14:34Penalty
  • 3rd 0:38Penalty
  • 3rd 3:42Penalty
  • 3rd 11:41Penalty
  • 3rd 16:12Penalty