AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 6

Calgary Wranglers at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Calgary Wranglers
1:6
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

CGYONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
22%78%
xG
1.32.0
High danger
25
Chances
27
Shots
2024

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineCGY belowDots are goals. Pre-game 71% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal24
2Scoring chances7
2High-danger chances5
1.33Expected goals2.03

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–80–40–20.4–1.0
2nd3–90–10–10.1–0.5
3rd10–72–22–20.8–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−40:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY40:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Pheonix Copley
Shots faced
20
Saves
19
Allowed
1
xGA
1.33
GSAx
+0.33
Owen Say
Shots faced
17
Saves
12
Allowed
5
xGA
1.45
GSAx
-3.55
Connor Murphy
Shots faced
7
Saves
6
Allowed
1
xGA
0.58
GSAx
-0.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:35Penalty
  • 1st 5:36Daniil Miromanov (1–0)low · 39 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 1st 6:42Kirill Kirsanov (1–1)low · 43 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 1st 8:03Penalty
  • 1st 9:32Andre Lee (1–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 1st 11:08Penalty
  • 1st 16:26Penalty
  • 2nd 0:54Martin Chromiak (1–3)low · 46 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 2nd 6:07Penalty
  • 2nd 12:32Kirill Kirsanov (1–4)low · 68 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 2nd 17:24Nikita Alexandrov (1–5)high · 12 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 2nd 18:00Penalty
  • 2nd 18:00Penalty
  • 2nd 18:00Penalty
  • 3rd 5:15Francesco Pinelli (1–6)high · 12 ft · beat Connor Murphy
  • 3rd 7:35Penalty
  • 3rd 7:35Penalty
  • 3rd 14:23Penalty
  • 3rd 14:23Penalty