AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 6

Tucson Roadrunners at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

Tucson Roadrunners
6:2
Final
San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

TUCSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
57%43%
xG
2.52.6
High danger
64
Chances
96
Shots
2241

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SJ above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal41
9Scoring chances6
6High-danger chances4
2.48Expected goals2.61

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–111–40–20.4–0.9
2nd12–87–06–01.8–0.5
3rd4–221–20–20.3–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SJ−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SJ37:59 of the 3rd12:0112:01+0.017 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
41
Saves
39
Allowed
2
xGA
2.61
GSAx
+0.61
Gabriel Carriere
Shots faced
22
Saves
16
Allowed
6
xGA
2.48
GSAx
-3.52

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:20Jack Thompson (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 10:08Ty Tullio (1–1)low · 32 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 1st 14:38Penalty
  • 2nd 1:27Penalty
  • 2nd 5:01Cameron Hebig (2–1)high · 10 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 2nd 7:23Ty Tullio (3–1)high · 7 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 2nd 7:31Cam Lund (3–2)low · 25 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 2nd 8:46Penalty
  • 2nd 14:08Penalty
  • 2nd 15:56Ben McCartney (4–2)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 2nd 16:49Penalty
  • 3rd 7:59Cameron Hebig (5–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 3rd 13:41Penalty
  • 3rd 16:31Cameron Hebig (6–2)empty net · low · 84 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
  • 3rd 18:13Penalty