Bakersfield Condors at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

Bakersfield Condors

4:0

Final

Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

BAKHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

41%59%

xG: 2.02.0
High danger: 23
Chances: 97
Shots: 2228

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HSK above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal28

9Scoring chances7

2High-danger chances3

1.97Expected goals2.03

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–14	4–4	0–1	0.8–1.0
2nd	7–6	4–1	1–1	0.7–0.3
3rd	7–8	1–2	1–1	0.5–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 28
Allowed: 0
xGA: 2.03
GSAx: +2.03

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 22
Saves: 18
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.97
GSAx: -2.03

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:14Seth Griffith (1–0)low · wrist · 35 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
1st 10:53Penalty
1st 11:22Quinn Hutson (2–0)5v4 · medium · wrist · 28 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
1st 12:28Penalty
2nd 3:01James Hamblin (3–0)medium · tip · 8 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
2nd 7:45Penalty
2nd 9:40Penalty
3rd 2:39Penalty
3rd 3:30Penalty
3rd 7:09Penalty
3rd 7:09Penalty
3rd 9:06Isaac Howard (4–0)high · wrist · 27 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 11:28Penalty
3rd 11:28Penalty
3rd 20:00Penalty