Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

2:3

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

LVHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

24%76%

xG: 2.33.2
High danger: 38
Chances: 713
Shots: 2726

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 53% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal26

7Scoring chances13

3High-danger chances8

2.26Expected goals3.24

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–7	4–2	1–1	0.9–0.6
2nd	10–8	1–6	1–3	0.8–1.3
3rd	8–11	2–5	1–4	0.5–1.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mitch Gibson

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.26
GSAx: +0.26

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.24
GSAx: +0.24

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 12:31Penalty
1st 14:33Louie Belpedio (0–1)low · 58 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
1st 16:04Penalty
2nd 1:53Alex Bump (1–1)grade A · rebound · 8 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
2nd 13:08Brett Leason (1–2)high · 5 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
2nd 19:02Penalty
3rd 0:36Penalty
3rd 2:45Jacob Gaucher (2–2)high · 21 ft · beat Mitch Gibson
3rd 3:11Penalty
3rd 10:42Penalty
3rd 16:30Brett Leason (2–3)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov