Manitoba Moose at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Manitoba Moose

4:3

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

MBIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

76%24%

xG: 3.41.8
High danger: 42
Chances: 138
Shots: 4221

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineMB belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

42Shots on goal21

13Scoring chances8

4High-danger chances2

3.41Expected goals1.77

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–9	2–5	2–0	0.9–0.8
2nd	14–7	3–3	1–2	0.9–0.6
3rd	18–5	8–0	1–0	1.6–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

William Rousseau

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 31
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.40
GSAx: +0.40

Isaac Poulter

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.77
GSAx: -1.23

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 9
Saves: 7
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.01
GSAx: -0.99

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:17Kale Clague (1–0)low · 38 ft · beat William Rousseau
1st 2:36Michael Milne (1–1)medium · 31 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
1st 8:08Penalty
1st 13:33Penalty
1st 14:16Nicolas Aubé-Kubel (1–2)4v5 · medium · 19 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
1st 15:17Penalty
2nd 5:23Penalty
2nd 6:25Penalty
2nd 7:25Phillip Di Giuseppe (2–2)5v4 · medium · 44 ft · beat William Rousseau
2nd 19:16Ryan Sandelin (2–3)medium · 12 ft · beat Isaac Poulter
3rd 7:39Kale Clague (3–3)medium · 11 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 8:26Jaret Anderson-Dolan (4–3)high · 16 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 16:15Penalty