Grand Rapids Griffins at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Grand Rapids Griffins

4:2

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

GRTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

59%41%

xG: 1.51.8
High danger: 31
Chances: 65
Shots: 1727

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

17Shots on goal27

6Scoring chances5

3High-danger chances1

1.49Expected goals1.82

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	3–12	2–2	1–0	0.3–0.7
2nd	10–8	2–0	0–0	0.6–0.4
3rd	4–7	2–3	2–1	0.5–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TOR	3	0:10 of the 3rd	19:50	19:50	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dustin Tokarski

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 25
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.82
GSAx: -0.18

Ken Appleby

Shots faced: 17
Saves: 13
Allowed: 4
xGA: 1.49
GSAx: -2.51

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 11:13Penalty
2nd 6:01Carson Bantle (1–0)medium · 18 ft · beat Ken Appleby
2nd 6:42Antti Tuomisto (2–0)low · 47 ft · beat Ken Appleby
2nd 13:33Penalty
2nd 15:28Penalty
3rd 0:10Eduards Tralmaks (3–0)high · 12 ft · beat Ken Appleby
3rd 1:47Penalty
3rd 7:23Penalty
3rd 7:38Dominik Shine (4–0)5v4 · high · 23 ft · beat Ken Appleby
3rd 11:05Penalty
3rd 11:05Penalty
3rd 15:39Penalty
3rd 16:50Penalty
3rd 17:11Benoit-Olivier Groulx (4–1)5v4 · high · 23 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski
3rd 19:30Logan Shaw (4–2)medium · 13 ft · beat Dustin Tokarski