Coachella Valley Firebirds at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Coachella Valley Firebirds

0:3

Final

Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

CVCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

93%7%

xG: 4.61.3
High danger: 102
Chances: 203
Shots: 4419

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CGY above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 36% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

44Shots on goal19

20Scoring chances3

10High-danger chances2

4.65Expected goals1.26

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–6	6–1	5–0	1.4–0.3
2nd	21–5	12–1	5–1	2.5–0.5
3rd	11–8	2–1	0–1	0.8–0.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CV	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Owen Say

Shots faced: 44
Saves: 44
Allowed: 0
xGA: 4.65
GSAx: +4.65

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 16
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.26
GSAx: -1.74

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:29Penalty
1st 6:01Penalty
1st 6:01Penalty
1st 6:01Penalty
1st 6:01Penalty
1st 11:43Aydar Suniev (0–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 3:53Daniil Miromanov (0–2)low · wrist · 33 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
2nd 8:13Penalty
2nd 11:33Penalty
2nd 12:23Penalty
2nd 16:24Penalty
2nd 18:01Penalty
3rd 10:31Penalty
3rd 10:31Penalty
3rd 19:21Martin Frk (0–3)empty net · low · wrist · 18 ft · beat Nikke Kokko