AHLDashboard
‹ Tuesday, December 9

Texas Stars at Ontario Reign

Toyota Arena · Ontario, CA

Texas Stars
3:6
Final
Ontario Reign

The sheet

TEXONTSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
35%65%
xG
2.12.6
High danger
35
Chances
810
Shots
2123

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ONT above the lineTEX belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% ONT.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal23
8Scoring chances10
3High-danger chances5
2.12Expected goals2.58

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st4–91–41–10.4–1.1
2nd8–63–31–20.8–0.7
3rd9–84–31–20.9–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TEX−3−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TEX33:58 of the 3rd16:0211:09+0.022 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Arno Tiefensee
Shots faced
23
Saves
17
Allowed
6
xGA
2.57
GSAx
-3.43
Pheonix Copley
Shots faced
21
Saves
18
Allowed
3
xGA
2.12
GSAx
-0.88

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:08Penalty
  • 1st 13:11Martin Chromiak (0–1)medium · 11 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
  • 1st 13:55Nikita Alexandrov (0–2)high · 8 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
  • 1st 19:37Penalty
  • 2nd 4:14Antonio Stranges (1–2)low · 9 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 2nd 7:34Kenny Connors (1–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
  • 2nd 12:01Penalty
  • 2nd 15:44Penalty
  • 3rd 3:58Nikita Alexandrov (1–4)high · 11 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
  • 3rd 7:16Artem Shlaine (2–4)high · 5 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 12:20Penalty
  • 3rd 17:59Harrison Scott (3–4)medium · 9 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
  • 3rd 19:15Kenny Connors (3–5)empty net · low · 85 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee
  • 3rd 19:53Francesco Pinelli (3–6)empty net · low · 69 ft · beat Arno Tiefensee