Providence Bruins at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Providence Bruins

3:1

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

PROHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

44%56%

xG: 3.24.1
High danger: 69
Chances: 1714
Shots: 3438

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 39% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal38

17Scoring chances14

6High-danger chances9

3.18Expected goals4.10

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	12–12	4–3	0–2	0.9–1.0
2nd	14–9	8–5	4–3	1.4–1.2
3rd	8–17	5–6	2–4	1.0–1.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	2	14:53 of the 3rd	5:07	5:07	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Michael DiPietro

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 37
Allowed: 1
xGA: 4.10
GSAx: +3.10

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 31
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.18
GSAx: +0.18

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:46Penalty
1st 12:08Brett Harrison (1–0)5v4 · medium · 48 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 18:50Penalty
2nd 4:36Riley Tufte (2–0)high · rebound · 16 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
2nd 7:57Penalty
2nd 10:41Penalty
2nd 14:05Penalty
3rd 4:27Penalty
3rd 7:20Penalty
3rd 7:20Penalty
3rd 8:35Ilya Protas (2–1)5v4 · high · 25 ft · beat Michael DiPietro
3rd 14:53Fabian Lysell (3–1)medium · 7 ft · beat Clay Stevenson