Syracuse Crunch at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Syracuse Crunch

2:3

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

SYRUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

49%51%

xG: 2.22.6
High danger: 44
Chances: 89
Shots: 2427

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineSYR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 51% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal27

8Scoring chances9

4High-danger chances4

2.22Expected goals2.56

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–4	2–2	1–1	0.6–0.5
2nd	8–13	4–4	2–1	1.0–1.4
3rd	8–10	2–3	1–2	0.6–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SYR	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	5:55	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Ryan Fanti

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 24
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.56
GSAx: -0.44

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.22
GSAx: +0.22

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:50Penalty
1st 9:16Penalty
1st 14:07Dmitry Osipov (0–1)low · 56 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
2nd 11:09Nick Abruzzese (1–1)medium · 18 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 15:24Dmitry Osipov (1–2)low · 37 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
2nd 18:08Penalty
2nd 19:50Seamus Casey (1–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 12 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
3rd 7:50Penalty
3rd 15:00Jakob Pelletier (2–3)high · 18 ft · beat Nico Daws