Rochester Americans at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Rochester Americans

6:1

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

ROCBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

73%27%

xG: 3.62.6
High danger: 21
Chances: 128
Shots: 4038

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineROC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 49% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal38

12Scoring chances8

2High-danger chances1

3.58Expected goals2.55

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–10	6–2	1–0	1.5–0.8
2nd	16–13	3–2	0–1	1.2–0.8
3rd	10–15	3–4	1–0	0.9–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 38
Saves: 37
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.55
GSAx: +1.55

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.50
GSAx: -1.50

Jackson Parsons

Shots faced: 13
Saves: 11
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.08
GSAx: -0.92

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:56Penalty
1st 3:27Riley Fiddler-Schultz (1–0)5v4 · medium · 36 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
1st 9:02Penalty
1st 10:46Konsta Helenius (2–0)5v4 · medium · 42 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
1st 14:07Penalty
1st 14:37Olle Lycksell (2–1)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 17:29Penalty
1st 18:30Noah Östlund (3–1)5v4 · low · 47 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 7:59Penalty
2nd 14:12Viktor Neuchev (4–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
3rd 2:00Penalty
3rd 2:15Nikita Novikov (5–1)4v5 · low · 40 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
3rd 9:04Penalty
3rd 11:59Nikita Novikov (6–1)low · 54 ft · beat Jackson Parsons
3rd 18:15Penalty
3rd 18:15Penalty
3rd 18:15Penalty
3rd 18:15Penalty
3rd 18:15Penalty
3rd 18:15Penalty
3rd 19:00Penalty
3rd 19:00Penalty