Rockford IceHogs at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Rockford IceHogs

4:3

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

RFDIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

27%73%

xG: 2.33.7
High danger: 310
Chances: 1012
Shots: 2733

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal33

10Scoring chances12

3High-danger chances10

2.33Expected goals3.70

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–6	1–2	1–1	0.5–0.5
2nd	8–18	5–7	2–6	0.9–2.0
3rd	12–9	4–3	0–3	0.9–1.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Laurent Brossoit

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 30
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.70
GSAx: +0.70

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 26
Saves: 23
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.33
GSAx: -0.67

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:46Bradley Marek (0–1)low · 40 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
1st 6:56Penalty
1st 11:59Penalty
1st 17:33Penalty
2nd 0:20Penalty
2nd 0:56Penalty
2nd 1:34Hunter Haight (0–2)5v4 · high · 30 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
2nd 3:44Landon Slaggert (1–2)high · 11 ft · beat Cal Petersen
2nd 5:22Penalty
2nd 12:47Penalty
2nd 12:52Penalty
2nd 13:21Nick Lardis (2–2)5v4 · high · 30 ft · beat Cal Petersen
2nd 17:19Penalty
3rd 1:11Kevin Korchinski (3–2)medium · 6 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 5:22Penalty
3rd 17:22Penalty
3rd 17:32Nolan Allan (4–2)empty net · low · 176 ft
3rd 18:26Gerry Mayhew (4–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit