AHLDashboard
‹ Wednesday, December 10

Henderson Silver Knights at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Henderson Silver Knights
5:2
Final
Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

HSKBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
69%31%
xG
3.72.5
High danger
74
Chances
126
Shots
3028

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
BAK above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 45% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

30Shots on goal28
12Scoring chances6
7High-danger chances4
3.70Expected goals2.53

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–73–12–11.4–0.4
2nd11–106–33–21.3–1.2
3rd8–113–22–11.0–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

BAK−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
BAK30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Connor Ingram
Shots faced
30
Saves
25
Allowed
5
xGA
3.70
GSAx
-1.30
Carl Lindbom
Shots faced
28
Saves
26
Allowed
2
xGA
2.53
GSAx
+0.53

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:21Mason Millman (0–1)low · wrist · 39 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 1st 3:12Penalty
  • 1st 3:31Penalty
  • 1st 8:04Penalty
  • 1st 11:59Penalty
  • 1st 11:59Penalty
  • 1st 14:59Penalty
  • 2nd 0:18Isaac Howard (0–2)low · wrist · 26 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
  • 2nd 8:01Lukas Cormier (1–2)low · wrist · 27 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 2nd 10:19Penalty
  • 2nd 11:20Penalty
  • 2nd 13:28Jackson Hallum (2–2)high · wrist · 12 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 2nd 15:05Penalty
  • 2nd 16:35Jakub Brabenec (3–2)5v4 · medium · wrist · rebound · 15 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 2nd 17:05Mitch McLain (4–2)high · wrist · 17 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 2nd 19:42Kai Uchacz (5–2)high · wrist · 21 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 3rd 2:07Penalty
  • 3rd 12:16Penalty