San Diego Gulls at San Jose Barracuda

Tech CU Arena · San Jose, CA

San Diego Gulls

3:1

Final

San Jose Barracuda

The sheet

SDSJSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

50%50%

xG: 2.52.7
High danger: 33
Chances: 99
Shots: 3533

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SJ above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% SJ.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal33

9Scoring chances9

3High-danger chances3

2.46Expected goals2.70

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–10	3–2	2–0	0.8–0.7
2nd	11–14	0–5	0–2	0.6–1.4
3rd	14–9	6–2	1–1	1.1–0.6

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 32
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.46
GSAx: -0.54

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 32
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.70
GSAx: +1.70

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:29Penalty
1st 2:55Penalty
1st 4:47Penalty
1st 4:47Penalty
1st 14:20Judd Caulfield (1–0)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 0:54Justin Bailey (2–0)low · 18 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 5:24Cam Lund (2–1)low · 7 ft · beat Calle Clang
2nd 13:05Penalty
2nd 13:05Penalty
2nd 15:17Penalty
2nd 15:17Penalty
3rd 2:12Penalty
3rd 11:02Penalty
3rd 11:02Penalty
3rd 15:40Penalty
3rd 19:32Judd Caulfield (3–1)empty net · low · 155 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 19:34Penalty