AHLDashboard
‹ Thursday, December 11

Coachella Valley Firebirds at Calgary Wranglers

Scotiabank Saddledome · Calgary, AB

Coachella Valley Firebirds
7:4
Final
Calgary Wranglers

The sheet

CVCGYSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
43%57%
xG
2.93.6
High danger
77
Chances
1013
Shots
2436

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

01234P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
CGY above the lineCV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 36% CGY.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal36
10Scoring chances13
7High-danger chances7
2.87Expected goals3.63

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–64–13–11.3–0.6
2nd6–111–40–30.4–1.0
3rd7–195–84–31.2–2.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

CGY−20:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
CGY212:09 of the 3rd7:517:51+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko
Shots faced
23
Saves
23
Allowed
0
xGA
2.32
GSAx
+2.32
Connor Murphy
Shots faced
13
Saves
11
Allowed
2
xGA
1.60
GSAx
-0.40
Victor Östman
Shots faced
13
Saves
9
Allowed
4
xGA
1.31
GSAx
-2.69
Owen Say
Shots faced
11
Saves
6
Allowed
5
xGA
1.27
GSAx
-3.73

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:30Tyson Jugnauth (1–0)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 1st 1:58Matvei Gridin (1–1)high · wrist · 22 ft · beat Victor Östman
  • 1st 2:31Kaden Hammell (2–1)low · tip · 65 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 1st 6:50Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (3–1)medium · backhand · 9 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 1st 10:41Penalty
  • 1st 15:10Tyson Jugnauth (4–1)low · snap · 30 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 1st 15:53Logan Morrison (5–1)high · tip · 11 ft · beat Owen Say
  • 1st 18:36Penalty
  • 1st 18:36Penalty
  • 1st 19:41Aydar Suniev (5–2)low · wrist · 51 ft · beat Victor Östman
  • 2nd 3:20Ty Nelson (6–2)low · wrist · 39 ft · beat Connor Murphy
  • 2nd 6:09Rory Kerins (6–3)high · tip · 8 ft · beat Victor Östman
  • 2nd 6:47Penalty
  • 2nd 7:55Justin Kirkland (6–4)5v4 · high · tip · 14 ft · beat Victor Östman
  • 2nd 18:17Penalty
  • 3rd 3:35Penalty
  • 3rd 4:10Penalty
  • 3rd 18:31Jacob Melanson (7–4)empty net · high · snap · 19 ft · beat Connor Murphy