Providence Bruins at Hershey Bears

Giant Center · Hershey, PA

Providence Bruins

4:1

Final

Hershey Bears

The sheet

PROHERSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

76%24%

xG: 4.82.7
High danger: 114
Chances: 1712
Shots: 3530

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

HER above the linePRO belowDots are goals. Pre-game 39% HER.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal30

17Scoring chances12

11High-danger chances4

4.80Expected goals2.73

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–7	4–0	3–0	1.5–0.3
2nd	13–12	7–6	5–0	1.8–1.1
3rd	12–11	6–6	3–4	1.5–1.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HER	3	10:30 of the 3rd	9:30	9:30	+0.014 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Clay Stevenson

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 31
Allowed: 4
xGA: 4.80
GSAx: +0.80

Simon Zajicek

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 29
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.73
GSAx: +1.73

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 6:15Penalty
1st 6:15Penalty
1st 7:02Georgii Merkulov (1–0)grade A · rebound · 16 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 9:15Dans Locmelis (2–0)low · 34 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
1st 16:26Penalty
2nd 5:22Penalty
2nd 6:42Brett Leason (2–1)5v4 · medium · 33 ft · beat Simon Zajicek
2nd 9:34Penalty
2nd 9:42Penalty
2nd 10:58Matthew Poitras (3–1)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 17 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 10:30Ty Gallagher (4–1)grade A · rebound · 7 ft · beat Clay Stevenson
3rd 11:34Penalty
3rd 15:10Penalty
3rd 17:45Penalty