Lehigh Valley Phantoms at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Lehigh Valley Phantoms

1:3

Final

Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

LVSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

14%86%

xG: 1.43.5
High danger: 39
Chances: 412
Shots: 1528

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SYR above the lineLV belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

15Shots on goal28

4Scoring chances12

3High-danger chances9

1.44Expected goals3.49

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	1–15	0–8	0–6	0.0–2.3
2nd	3–8	1–3	1–3	0.3–0.9
3rd	11–5	3–1	2–0	1.1–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
LV	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Aleksei Kolosov

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 25
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.49
GSAx: +0.49

Kevin Mandolese

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 14
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.44
GSAx: +0.44

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:02Penalty
1st 5:34Penalty
1st 17:07Penalty
1st 17:07Penalty
1st 19:00Penalty
2nd 0:36Dylan Duke (0–1)5v4 · high · 11 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
2nd 5:48Penalty
2nd 11:28Penalty
2nd 12:32Jakob Pelletier (0–2)4v5 · high · 10 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov
3rd 9:20Penalty
3rd 11:35Penalty
3rd 17:55Penalty
3rd 18:16Jacob Gaucher (1–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 9 ft · beat Kevin Mandolese
3rd 19:43Conor Geekie (1–3)empty net · low · 164 ft · beat Aleksei Kolosov