Hartford Wolf Pack at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Hartford Wolf Pack

2:1

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

HFDUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

36%64%

xG: 1.72.2
High danger: 23
Chances: 58
Shots: 2427

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 58% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

24Shots on goal27

5Scoring chances8

2High-danger chances3

1.74Expected goals2.18

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–13	0–6	0–3	0.5–1.3
2nd	8–9	2–2	0–0	0.5–0.7
3rd	7–5	3–0	2–0	0.7–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Dylan Garand

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 26
Allowed: 1
xGA: 2.18
GSAx: +1.18

Jakub Málek

Shots faced: 24
Saves: 22
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.74
GSAx: -0.26

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:00Penalty
1st 6:22Brennan Othmann (1–0)4v5 · low · 49 ft · beat Jakub Málek
2nd 5:38Penalty
2nd 6:12Penalty
2nd 6:49Penalty
2nd 7:10Lenni Hämeenaho (1–1)5v4 · medium · 45 ft · beat Dylan Garand
2nd 8:01Adam Sýkora (2–1)4v5 · medium · 35 ft · beat Jakub Málek
2nd 12:37Penalty
2nd 13:39Penalty
2nd 15:01Penalty
3rd 10:42Penalty
3rd 17:05Penalty