Iowa Wild at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Iowa Wild

1:6

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

IAMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

21%79%

xG: 2.03.7
High danger: 26
Chances: 511
Shots: 2836

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineIA belowDots are goals. Pre-game 55% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

28Shots on goal36

5Scoring chances11

2High-danger chances6

1.98Expected goals3.73

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	10–8	2–3	1–2	0.8–0.7
2nd	8–12	2–3	1–1	0.7–1.0
3rd	10–16	1–5	0–3	0.5–2.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	4	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.013 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Cal Petersen

Shots faced: 36
Saves: 30
Allowed: 6
xGA: 3.72
GSAx: -2.28

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 28
Saves: 27
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.98
GSAx: +0.98

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:06Penalty
1st 0:06Penalty
1st 3:16Walker Duehr (0–1)low · 40 ft · beat Cal Petersen
1st 6:34Mason Shaw (0–2)high · 10 ft · beat Cal Petersen
1st 10:20Penalty
1st 17:48Penalty
1st 18:58Brad Lambert (0–3)5v4 · high · 26 ft · beat Cal Petersen
1st 19:25Penalty
2nd 1:09Penalty
2nd 5:17Penalty
2nd 8:29Penalty
2nd 8:29Penalty
2nd 8:29Penalty
2nd 11:40Isaak Phillips (0–4)low · 36 ft · beat Cal Petersen
2nd 19:29Penalty
3rd 2:21Mason Shaw (0–5)medium · 30 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 3:03Oskar Olausson (1–5)low · 34 ft · beat Thomas Milic
3rd 13:43Jaret Anderson-Dolan (1–6)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Cal Petersen
3rd 16:04Penalty