AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, December 12

Milwaukee Admirals at Rockford IceHogs

BMO Center · Rockford, IL

Milwaukee Admirals
3:5
Final
Rockford IceHogs

The sheet

MILRFDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
51%49%
xG
3.53.3
High danger
66
Chances
1214
Shots
3631

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
RFD above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% RFD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

36Shots on goal31
12Scoring chances14
6High-danger chances6
3.54Expected goals3.29

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st7–83–11–00.6–0.4
2nd10–123–81–60.8–2.1
3rd19–116–54–02.2–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

MIL−3−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
MIL30:00 of the 3rd20:0014:25+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Laurent Brossoit
Shots faced
36
Saves
33
Allowed
3
xGA
3.54
GSAx
+0.54
Matthew Murray
Shots faced
31
Saves
26
Allowed
5
xGA
3.29
GSAx
-1.71

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 8:50Penalty
  • 1st 19:14Penalty
  • 1st 19:14Penalty
  • 1st 19:45Penalty
  • 2nd 1:18Nick Lardis (0–1)4v5 · grade A · rebound · 15 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 1:51Brett Seney (0–2)low · 41 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 3:54Penalty
  • 2nd 4:56Daniel Carr (1–2)5v4 · high · tip · 11 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
  • 2nd 7:29Penalty
  • 2nd 7:29Penalty
  • 2nd 8:15Penalty
  • 2nd 15:39Martin Misiak (1–3)medium · 10 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 2nd 16:21Penalty
  • 2nd 16:21Penalty
  • 2nd 16:52Penalty
  • 2nd 17:01Penalty
  • 2nd 18:45Jamie Engelbert (1–4)high · 7 ft · beat Matthew Murray
  • 3rd 4:19Penalty
  • 3rd 9:18Penalty
  • 3rd 11:21Jake Lucchini (2–4)grade A · rebound · 20 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
  • 3rd 11:57Cole O’Hara (3–4)low · 33 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
  • 3rd 12:19Penalty
  • 3rd 12:26Penalty
  • 3rd 18:56Laurent Brossoit (3–5)empty net · low · 176 ft · beat Matthew Murray