AHLDashboard
‹ Friday, December 12

Bakersfield Condors at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Bakersfield Condors
4:5
Final / OT
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

BAKTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
33%67%
xG
3.25.2
High danger
68
Chances
1416
Shots
3140

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

024P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal40
14Scoring chances16
6High-danger chances8
3.17Expected goals5.21

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st16–104–21–01.2–0.8
2nd6–184–82–50.7–2.5
3rd9–96–43–11.3–0.9
OT0–30–20–20.0–0.9

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Nobody trailed late enough in the third for the goalie to be a decision.

In goal

Matt Tomkins
Shots faced
40
Saves
35
Allowed
5
xGA
5.21
GSAx
+0.21
Matthew Villalta
Shots faced
31
Saves
27
Allowed
4
xGA
3.17
GSAx
-0.83

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:19Sammy Walker (0–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 5:03Seth Griffith (1–1)medium · 26 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 5:27Penalty
  • 1st 5:27Penalty
  • 1st 6:59Robbie Russo (1–2)low · 46 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 1st 8:16James Hamblin (2–2)low · 61 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 12:49Quinn Hutson (3–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 1st 16:48Penalty
  • 1st 16:48Penalty
  • 2nd 5:46Penalty
  • 2nd 18:21Penalty
  • 2nd 18:37Penalty
  • 2nd 19:58Cameron Hebig (3–3)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 19 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 0:59Viljami Marjala (4–3)grade A · rebound · 35 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
  • 3rd 1:30Penalty
  • 3rd 7:51Penalty
  • 3rd 15:53Scott Perunovich (4–4)medium · 25 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
  • 3rd 18:30Penalty
  • 3rd 19:34Penalty
  • OT 1:07Dmitri Simashev (4–5)5v4 · grade A · 36 ft · beat Matt Tomkins