Ontario Reign at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Ontario Reign

3:2

Final

Colorado Eagles

The sheet

ONTCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

53%47%

xG: 3.22.8
High danger: 43
Chances: 1413
Shots: 3329

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

COL above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal29

14Scoring chances13

4High-danger chances3

3.22Expected goals2.80

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–11	5–6	1–1	0.9–1.2
2nd	14–10	5–4	1–1	1.2–0.8
3rd	11–8	4–3	2–1	1.1–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
COL	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	6:05	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Trent Miner

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 30
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.22
GSAx: +0.22

Pheonix Copley

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.80
GSAx: +0.80

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 9:37Penalty
2nd 7:20Penalty
2nd 19:10Penalty
2nd 19:51Penalty
3rd 0:39Tristen Nielsen (0–1)medium · 12 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 2:51Taylor Ward (1–1)high · 15 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 4:22Penalty
3rd 4:22Penalty
3rd 4:22Penalty
3rd 9:19Penalty
3rd 9:24Glenn Gawdin (2–1)5v4 · high · 10 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 9:57Glenn Gawdin (3–1)5v4 · medium · 23 ft · beat Trent Miner
3rd 15:10Jayson Megna (3–2)high · 12 ft · beat Pheonix Copley
3rd 16:01Penalty