Henderson Silver Knights at San Diego Gulls

Pechanga Arena San Diego · San Diego, CA

Henderson Silver Knights

1:4

Final

San Diego Gulls

The sheet

HSKSDSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

19%81%

xG: 1.43.1
High danger: 16
Chances: 614
Shots: 1629

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

SD above the lineHSK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% SD.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

16Shots on goal29

6Scoring chances14

1High-danger chances6

1.42Expected goals3.13

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–3	4–0	1–0	0.8–0.2
2nd	3–13	0–7	0–3	0.2–1.3
3rd	5–13	2–7	0–3	0.4–1.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
HSK	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Carl Lindbom

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 25
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.14
GSAx: -0.86

Calle Clang

Shots faced: 16
Saves: 15
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.42
GSAx: +0.42

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 7:45Penalty
1st 9:49Matyas Sapovaliv (1–0)low · 38 ft · beat Calle Clang
1st 11:01Penalty
2nd 16:30Penalty
2nd 18:37Matthew Phillips (1–1)high · rebound · 11 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 1:38Penalty
3rd 4:51Ryan Carpenter (1–2)grade A · rebound · 6 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 5:16Sasha Pastujov (1–3)medium · 19 ft · beat Carl Lindbom
3rd 5:31Penalty
3rd 17:48Stian Solberg (1–4)empty net · low · 182 ft · beat Carl Lindbom