Springfield Thunderbirds at Utica Comets

Adirondack Bank Center · Utica, NY

Springfield Thunderbirds

3:2

Final

Utica Comets

The sheet

SPRUTCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

47%53%

xG: 2.43.1
High danger: 54
Chances: 913
Shots: 2134

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

UTC above the lineSPR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% UTC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

21Shots on goal34

9Scoring chances13

5High-danger chances4

2.44Expected goals3.05

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–15	3–5	2–3	0.6–1.4
2nd	8–9	4–6	1–0	0.9–1.0
3rd	7–10	2–2	2–1	1.0–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
UTC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Georgii Romanov

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 32
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.05
GSAx: +1.05

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.44
GSAx: -0.56

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 15:43Penalty
2nd 6:14Jonathan Gruden (0–1)medium · 17 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
2nd 9:59Penalty
2nd 12:39Chris Wagner (1–1)high · 14 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 1:48Nikita Susuyev (2–1)grade A · 9 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 4:09Lenni Hämeenaho (2–2)low · 26 ft · beat Georgii Romanov
3rd 8:47Otto Stenberg (3–2)high · 7 ft · beat Nico Daws
3rd 10:15Penalty