Chicago Wolves at Milwaukee Admirals

UW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · Milwaukee, WI

Chicago Wolves

4:2

Final

Milwaukee Admirals

The sheet

CHIMILSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

33%67%

xG: 2.22.9
High danger: 36
Chances: 913
Shots: 2229

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MIL above the lineCHI belowDots are goals. Pre-game 50% MIL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

22Shots on goal29

9Scoring chances13

3High-danger chances6

2.19Expected goals2.94

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–8	3–5	2–2	0.8–0.9
2nd	4–15	0–6	0–3	0.2–1.6
3rd	11–6	6–2	1–1	1.3–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Amir Miftakhov

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 27
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.94
GSAx: +0.94

Magnus Chrona

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 18
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.17
GSAx: -0.83

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:21Bradly Nadeau (1–0)medium · 13 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
1st 11:09Penalty
1st 11:09Penalty
1st 11:09Penalty
1st 13:08David Edstrom (1–1)5v4 · high · 29 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
1st 13:33Ivan Ryabkin (2–1)high · 8 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
1st 17:06Penalty
1st 17:52Penalty
1st 19:59Domenick Fensore (3–1)low · 42 ft · beat Magnus Chrona
2nd 1:22Penalty
2nd 1:28Penalty
2nd 3:25Ryan Ufko (3–2)5v4 · low · 52 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
2nd 3:45Penalty
2nd 6:39Penalty
2nd 14:56Penalty
3rd 3:39Penalty
3rd 8:34Penalty
3rd 14:20Penalty
3rd 19:23Penalty
3rd 19:53Justin Robidas (4–2)empty net · low · 132 ft