AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 13

Hartford Wolf Pack at Syracuse Crunch

Upstate Medical University Arena · Syracuse, NY

Hartford Wolf Pack
2:7
Final
Syracuse Crunch

The sheet

HFDSYRSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
16%84%
xG
2.45.0
High danger
211
Chances
917
Shots
2331

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

012345P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
SYR above the lineHFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 60% SYR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal31
9Scoring chances17
2High-danger chances11
2.38Expected goals5.00

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st11–94–41–31.2–1.5
2nd5–172–90–60.4–2.7
3rd7–53–41–20.7–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

HFD−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
HFD30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Spencer Martin
Shots faced
31
Saves
24
Allowed
7
xGA
5.00
GSAx
-2.00
Ryan Fanti
Shots faced
23
Saves
21
Allowed
2
xGA
2.38
GSAx
+0.38

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 1:57Connor Mackey (1–0)low · 57 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
  • 1st 9:57Penalty
  • 1st 10:07Jack Finley (1–1)4v5 · high · 20 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 1st 15:53Brennan Othmann (2–1)medium · 23 ft · beat Ryan Fanti
  • 1st 16:27Penalty
  • 1st 17:02Jakob Pelletier (2–2)4v5 · grade A · 44 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 2nd 2:11Brendan Furry (2–3)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 2nd 3:24Penalty
  • 2nd 7:24Ethan Gauthier (2–4)low · 50 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 2nd 8:44Penalty
  • 2nd 9:36Jakob Pelletier (2–5)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 24 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 3rd 0:39Penalty
  • 3rd 2:35Penalty
  • 3rd 7:39Penalty
  • 3rd 8:27Penalty
  • 3rd 8:27Penalty
  • 3rd 12:16Matteo Pietroniro (2–6)low · 43 ft · beat Spencer Martin
  • 3rd 12:25Penalty
  • 3rd 14:55Lucas Mercuri (2–7)medium · 24 ft · beat Spencer Martin