Cleveland Monsters at Belleville Senators

CAA Arena · Belleville, ON

Cleveland Monsters

4:1

Final

Belleville Senators

The sheet

CLEBELSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

90%10%

xG: 2.81.2
High danger: 30
Chances: 113
Shots: 3321

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BEL above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 37% BEL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

33Shots on goal21

11Scoring chances3

3High-danger chances0

2.83Expected goals1.21

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	13–8	5–1	0–0	1.2–0.4
2nd	8–9	0–1	0–0	0.4–0.6
3rd	12–4	6–1	3–0	1.3–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	3	11:59 of the 3rd	8:01	8:01	+0.011 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 33
Saves: 29
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.83
GSAx: -1.17

Ivan Fedotov

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 20
Allowed: 1
xGA: 1.21
GSAx: +0.21

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 1:20Penalty
1st 3:11Jack Williams (1–0)5v4 · medium · 21 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
1st 7:48Corson Ceulemans (2–0)low · 43 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
1st 13:53Penalty
2nd 5:51Penalty
2nd 6:50Arthur Kaliyev (2–1)5v4 · low · 55 ft · beat Ivan Fedotov
2nd 7:49Jordan Dumais (3–1)low · 22 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
3rd 7:01Penalty
3rd 11:59Hudson Fasching (4–1)high · 11 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
3rd 15:41Penalty
3rd 17:47Penalty
3rd 17:47Penalty