San Jose Barracuda at Texas Stars

H-E-B Center at Cedar Park · Cedar Park, TX

San Jose Barracuda

4:3

Final / OT

Texas Stars

The sheet

SJTEXSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

51%49%

xG: 3.93.3
High danger: 107
Chances: 1614
Shots: 3429

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TEX above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% TEX.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

34Shots on goal29

16Scoring chances14

10High-danger chances7

3.87Expected goals3.25

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	8–17	4–6	3–4	1.0–1.8
2nd	14–5	9–3	5–1	1.8–0.5
3rd	11–6	3–5	2–2	1.0–0.9
OT	1–1	0–0	0–0	0.1–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	0:15	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Rémi Poirier

Shots faced: 34
Saves: 30
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.87
GSAx: -0.13

Jakub Skarek

Shots faced: 29
Saves: 26
Allowed: 3
xGA: 3.25
GSAx: +0.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 2:58Michael Karow (0–1)low · 17 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
1st 4:05Penalty
1st 10:08Penalty
1st 17:12Filip Bystedt (1–1)low · wrist · 41 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 3:28Penalty
2nd 8:02Matthew Seminoff (1–2)medium · snap · 24 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
2nd 10:58Egor Afanasyev (2–2)medium · 17 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
2nd 13:25Penalty
3rd 4:53Gavin White (2–3)medium · wrist · rebound · 42 ft · beat Jakub Skarek
3rd 7:24Penalty
3rd 12:22Penalty
3rd 17:11Cam Lund (3–3)low · snap · 13 ft · beat Rémi Poirier
OT 0:18Penalty
OT 1:52Filip Bystedt (4–3)5v4 · low · wrist · 34 ft · beat Rémi Poirier