AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 13

Bakersfield Condors at Tucson Roadrunners

Tucson Convention Center Arena · Tucson, AZ

Bakersfield Condors
8:7
Final / OT
Tucson Roadrunners

The sheet

BAKTUCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
55%45%
xG
3.23.1
High danger
25
Chances
147
Shots
3727

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
TUC above the lineBAK belowDots are goals. Pre-game 57% TUC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal27
14Scoring chances7
2High-danger chances5
3.21Expected goals3.15

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st10–51–00–00.6–0.3
2nd19–1211–32–12.0–1.2
3rd6–82–40–40.5–1.5
OT2–20–00–00.1–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC116:56 of the 3rd3:041:28+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
37
Saves
29
Allowed
8
xGA
3.21
GSAx
-4.79
Connor Ingram
Shots faced
27
Saves
20
Allowed
7
xGA
3.15
GSAx
-3.85

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 2:12Owen Allard (0–1)low · 29 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 1st 14:41Atro Leppänen (1–1)low · 53 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 1st 17:25Ty Tullio (1–2)low · 58 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 2nd 1:28Quinn Hutson (2–2)high · 13 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 2:22Ty Tullio (2–3)low · 42 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 2nd 3:00Penalty
  • 2nd 6:14Penalty
  • 2nd 8:29Scott Perunovich (2–4)grade A · rebound · 13 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 2nd 8:41Penalty
  • 2nd 10:31Viljami Marjala (3–4)5v4 · high · 24 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 12:42Daniel D’Amato (4–4)medium · 20 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 14:16Viljami Marjala (5–4)medium · 16 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 15:21Ben McCartney (5–5)medium · 19 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 2nd 17:09Penalty
  • 3rd 6:05Matvey Petrov (6–5)low · 35 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 3rd 7:00Ben McCartney (6–6)high · 9 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • 3rd 9:12Penalty
  • 3rd 9:38Quinn Hutson (7–6)5v4 · medium · 23 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 3rd 13:09Penalty
  • 3rd 18:24Cameron Hebig (7–7)grade A · rebound · 11 ft · beat Connor Ingram
  • OT 3:39Penalty
  • OT 4:07Isaac Howard (8–7)5v4 · low · 45 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber