AHLDashboard
‹ Saturday, December 13

Ontario Reign at Colorado Eagles

Blue Federal Credit Union Arena · Loveland, CO

Ontario Reign
1:6
Final
Colorado Eagles

The sheet

ONTCOLSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
20%80%
xG
2.03.5
High danger
38
Chances
614
Shots
2033

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
COL above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% COL.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

20Shots on goal33
6Scoring chances14
3High-danger chances8
1.95Expected goals3.53

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st3–151–51–20.3–1.3
2nd8–114–62–31.0–1.4
3rd9–71–30–30.6–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

ONT−30:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
ONT30:00 of the 3rd20:0020:00+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Isaiah Saville
Shots faced
33
Saves
27
Allowed
6
xGA
3.53
GSAx
-2.47
Isak Posch
Shots faced
20
Saves
19
Allowed
1
xGA
1.95
GSAx
+0.95

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 10:00Penalty
  • 1st 16:06Jayson Megna (0–1)medium · 8 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
  • 1st 19:16Penalty
  • 1st 19:21Tristen Nielsen (0–2)5v4 · grade A · 10 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
  • 2nd 1:58Penalty
  • 2nd 1:58Penalty
  • 2nd 3:40Alex Barré-Boulet (0–3)grade A · 8 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
  • 2nd 5:50Glenn Gawdin (1–3)medium · 13 ft · beat Isak Posch
  • 2nd 6:20Penalty
  • 2nd 7:31Penalty
  • 2nd 12:16Penalty
  • 2nd 12:16Penalty
  • 2nd 13:03Taylor Makar (1–4)high · rebound · 10 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
  • 2nd 14:30Penalty
  • 3rd 1:37Penalty
  • 3rd 5:35Jayson Megna (1–5)high · 12 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
  • 3rd 11:13Alex Barré-Boulet (1–6)high · 8 ft · beat Isaiah Saville
  • 3rd 12:41Penalty
  • 3rd 12:41Penalty
  • 3rd 12:41Penalty
  • 3rd 12:41Penalty