Cleveland Monsters at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Cleveland Monsters

2:3

Final

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

CLETORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

85%15%

xG: 2.91.4
High danger: 41
Chances: 105
Shots: 3120

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineCLE belowDots are goals. Pre-game 48% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

31Shots on goal20

10Scoring chances5

4High-danger chances1

2.88Expected goals1.36

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	14–5	5–1	2–0	1.4–0.3
2nd	10–10	4–2	2–1	0.9–0.7
3rd	7–5	1–2	0–0	0.5–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
CLE	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Vyacheslav Peksa

Shots faced: 31
Saves: 29
Allowed: 2
xGA: 2.87
GSAx: +0.87

Zach Sawchenko

Shots faced: 20
Saves: 17
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.36
GSAx: -1.64

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 8:16Penalty
1st 11:58Penalty
1st 18:59Riley Bezeau (1–0)grade A · rebound · 29 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
2nd 2:31Penalty
2nd 2:31Penalty
2nd 8:06Penalty
2nd 14:00Matthew Barbolini (1–1)low · 33 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
2nd 14:36Penalty
2nd 14:46Benoit-Olivier Groulx (1–2)5v4 · low · 52 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
3rd 1:44Cédric Paré (1–3)medium · 25 ft · beat Zach Sawchenko
3rd 2:11Roman Ahcan (2–3)medium · 28 ft · beat Vyacheslav Peksa
3rd 14:09Penalty
3rd 18:36Penalty