AHLDashboard
Tuesday, December 16

San Diego Gulls at Henderson Silver Knights

Lee’s Family Forum · Henderson, NV

San Diego Gulls
0:1
Final
Henderson Silver Knights

The sheet

SDHSKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
41%59%
xG
2.92.4
High danger
23
Chances
99
Shots
3228

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

0123P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
HSK above the lineSD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 59% HSK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal28
9Scoring chances9
2High-danger chances3
2.89Expected goals2.35

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st91233020.70.9
2nd15945101.51.0
3rd8721110.70.5

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

SD−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
SD116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Shots faced
32
Saves
32
Allowed
0
xGA
2.89
GSAx
+2.89
Shots faced
28
Saves
27
Allowed
1
xGA
2.35
GSAx
+1.35

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 5:23Penalty
  • 1st 10:38Penalty
  • 2nd 2:40Penalty
  • 2nd 9:49Penalty
  • 2nd 14:17Riley McKay (0–1)medium · wrist · 20 ft · beat Calle Clang
  • 2nd 16:38Penalty
  • 3rd 0:22Penalty
  • 3rd 0:22Penalty
  • 3rd 4:40Penalty
  • 3rd 10:37Penalty
  • 3rd 10:37Penalty
  • 3rd 16:33Penalty
  • 3rd 16:33Penalty