Milwaukee Admirals at Chicago Wolves

Allstate Arena · Rosemont, IL

Milwaukee Admirals

2:3

Final

Chicago Wolves

The sheet

MILCHISolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

79%21%

xG: 3.81.6
High danger: 65
Chances: 158
Shots: 3715

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CHI above the lineMIL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 56% CHI.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

37Shots on goal15

15Scoring chances8

6High-danger chances5

3.80Expected goals1.63

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–8	6–5	2–3	1.1–1.0
2nd	15–4	6–3	4–2	1.9–0.6
3rd	13–3	3–0	0–0	0.8–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MIL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Amir Miftakhov

Shots faced: 37
Saves: 35
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.80
GSAx: +1.80

Matthew Murray

Shots faced: 15
Saves: 12
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.63
GSAx: -1.37

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:18Cal Foote (0–1)low · 56 ft · beat Matthew Murray
1st 5:30Penalty
1st 6:52Penalty
1st 7:49Penalty
1st 16:41Penalty
1st 18:04Penalty
1st 18:39Zach L’Heureux (1–1)5v4 · high · 13 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
2nd 1:02Penalty
2nd 3:30Justin Robidas (1–2)high · 12 ft · beat Matthew Murray
2nd 6:25Penalty
2nd 9:37Penalty
2nd 9:37Penalty
2nd 10:20Penalty
2nd 10:20Penalty
2nd 10:20Penalty
2nd 15:22Penalty
2nd 17:46Skyler Brind’Amour (1–3)high · 10 ft · beat Matthew Murray
3rd 2:41Penalty
3rd 2:51Joakim Kemell (2–3)5v4 · medium · 32 ft · beat Amir Miftakhov
3rd 10:00Penalty