Utica Comets at Rochester Americans

Blue Cross Arena · Rochester, NY

Utica Comets

3:2

Final

Rochester Americans

The sheet

UTCROCSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

43%57%

xG: 1.71.7
High danger: 33
Chances: 55
Shots: 1921

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ROC above the lineUTC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% ROC.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

19Shots on goal21

5Scoring chances5

3High-danger chances3

1.72Expected goals1.66

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	7–5	1–2	1–2	0.6–0.6
2nd	10–11	3–3	2–1	1.0–0.8
3rd	2–5	1–0	0–0	0.2–0.3

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
ROC	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nico Daws

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 19
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.66
GSAx: -0.34

Devon Levi

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 16
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.72
GSAx: -1.28

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 5:03Penalty
1st 6:01Penalty
1st 6:12Isak Rosén (0–1)5v4 · high · 35 ft · beat Nico Daws
1st 15:27Matyas Melovsky (1–1)low · 34 ft · beat Devon Levi
1st 17:51Penalty
2nd 0:52Jonathan Gruden (2–1)high · 7 ft · beat Devon Levi
2nd 4:39Zac Jones (2–2)low · 46 ft · beat Nico Daws
2nd 8:26Penalty
2nd 8:26Penalty
2nd 8:26Penalty
2nd 10:11Topias Vilen (3–2)5v4 · low · 49 ft · beat Devon Levi
3rd 4:30Penalty
3rd 10:17Penalty