Grand Rapids Griffins at Iowa Wild

Casey’s Center · Des Moines, IA

Grand Rapids Griffins

5:2

Final

Iowa Wild

The sheet

GRIASolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

73%27%

xG: 2.41.7
High danger: 53
Chances: 127
Shots: 2318

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

IA above the lineGR belowDots are goals. Pre-game 41% IA.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

23Shots on goal18

12Scoring chances7

5High-danger chances3

2.45Expected goals1.73

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	6–8	3–4	1–2	0.6–0.9
2nd	8–9	3–3	2–1	0.7–0.9
3rd	9–1	6–0	2–0	1.1–0.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
IA	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Samuel Hlavaj

Shots faced: 23
Saves: 18
Allowed: 5
xGA: 2.45
GSAx: -2.55

Sebastian Cossa

Shots faced: 18
Saves: 16
Allowed: 2
xGA: 1.73
GSAx: -0.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 18:01Hunter Haight (0–1)medium · 9 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 11:11Hunter Haight (0–2)medium · 26 ft · beat Sebastian Cossa
2nd 12:51Alex Kannok Leipert (1–2)low · 49 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
2nd 16:10Penalty
2nd 17:57Penalty
3rd 4:36Ian Mitchell (2–2)low · 44 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 7:23Dominik Shine (3–2)low · 35 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 8:50Penalty
3rd 17:26Dominik Shine (4–2)high · 12 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj
3rd 19:31Gabriel Seger (5–2)empty net · medium · 27 ft · beat Samuel Hlavaj