Ontario Reign at Bakersfield Condors

Dignity Health Arena · Bakersfield, CA

Ontario Reign

4:0

Final

Bakersfield Condors

The sheet

ONTBAKSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

88%12%

xG: 3.21.2
High danger: 61
Chances: 113
Shots: 2719

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

BAK above the lineONT belowDots are goals. Pre-game 44% BAK.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

27Shots on goal19

11Scoring chances3

6High-danger chances1

3.19Expected goals1.25

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–7	4–1	1–0	1.2–0.4
2nd	9–8	4–0	3–0	1.1–0.4
3rd	7–4	3–2	2–1	0.9–0.4

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BAK	3	0:00 of the 3rd	20:00	20:00	+0.024 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Matt Tomkins

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.19
GSAx: -0.81

Isaiah Saville

Shots faced: 19
Saves: 19
Allowed: 0
xGA: 1.25
GSAx: +1.25

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 10:51Penalty
1st 16:49Penalty
1st 17:29Martin Chromiak (1–0)5v4 · medium · slap · 35 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 2:02Martin Chromiak (2–0)high · wrist · 15 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
2nd 3:13Andre Lee (3–0)medium · wrist · 26 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 2:21Penalty
3rd 5:38Kirill Kirsanov (4–0)low · tip · 12 ft · beat Matt Tomkins
3rd 16:57Penalty