San Jose Barracuda at Coachella Valley Firebirds

Acrisure Arena · Palm Desert, CA

San Jose Barracuda

2:4

Final

Coachella Valley Firebirds

The sheet

SJCVSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

53%47%

xG: 4.73.5
High danger: 67
Chances: 2018
Shots: 4030

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

CV above the lineSJ belowDots are goals. Pre-game 52% CV.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

40Shots on goal30

20Scoring chances18

6High-danger chances7

4.68Expected goals3.53

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	9–7	4–5	2–2	0.9–0.9
2nd	14–14	4–8	2–4	1.5–1.6
3rd	17–9	12–5	2–1	2.3–1.0

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
SJ	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	3:04	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikke Kokko

Shots faced: 40
Saves: 38
Allowed: 2
xGA: 4.68
GSAx: +2.68

Gabriel Carriere

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.53
GSAx: -0.47

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 4:42John Hayden (0–1)high · 9 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
1st 5:55Penalty
1st 8:51Penalty
1st 11:43Penalty
1st 14:25Penalty
2nd 7:01Penalty
2nd 7:01Penalty
2nd 8:31Penalty
2nd 19:19Penalty
3rd 0:14Penalty
3rd 1:01Oliver Wahlstrom (1–1)5v4 · medium · 41 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 5:40Mitchell Stephens (1–2)medium · 10 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
3rd 7:39Penalty
3rd 10:30Penalty
3rd 11:00Filip Bystedt (2–2)5v4 · grade A · rebound · 10 ft · beat Nikke Kokko
3rd 16:44Oscar Fisker Mølgaard (2–3)high · 20 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
3rd 18:40Logan Morrison (2–4)empty net · low · 150 ft · beat Gabriel Carriere
3rd 19:26Penalty