Tucson Roadrunners at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

Tucson Roadrunners

2:4

Final

Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

TUCABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

68%32%

xG: 3.82.7
High danger: 74
Chances: 1311
Shots: 3527

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

ABB above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

35Shots on goal27

13Scoring chances11

7High-danger chances4

3.81Expected goals2.73

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	19–9	10–2	6–1	2.5–0.7
2nd	12–11	2–5	1–2	0.9–1.3
3rd	4–7	1–4	0–1	0.4–0.7

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
TUC	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Nikita Tolopilo

Shots faced: 35
Saves: 33
Allowed: 2
xGA: 3.81
GSAx: +1.81

Matthew Villalta

Shots faced: 27
Saves: 23
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.73
GSAx: -1.27

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 3:15Chase Wouters (0–1)medium · 20 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
1st 7:19Austin Poganski (1–1)medium · 16 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
1st 8:08Penalty
1st 8:08Penalty
1st 10:13Penalty
1st 10:13Penalty
2nd 5:41Penalty
2nd 6:55Penalty
2nd 10:25Dmitri Simashev (2–1)medium · rebound · 18 ft · beat Nikita Tolopilo
2nd 13:22Penalty
2nd 15:05Mackenzie MacEachern (2–2)5v4 · high · 6 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 4:18Jonathan Lekkerimäki (2–3)low · 36 ft · beat Matthew Villalta
3rd 7:00Arshdeep Bains (2–4)high · 11 ft · beat Matthew Villalta