Rockford IceHogs at Manitoba Moose

Canada Life Centre · Winnipeg, MB

Rockford IceHogs

7:3

Final

Manitoba Moose

The sheet

RFDMBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

79%21%

xG: 4.42.9
High danger: 133
Chances: 198
Shots: 3243

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

MB above the lineRFD belowDots are goals. Pre-game 61% MB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

32Shots on goal43

19Scoring chances8

13High-danger chances3

4.44Expected goals2.89

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–11	5–3	5–3	1.4–1.1
2nd	8–18	5–3	3–0	1.1–1.0
3rd	13–14	9–2	5–0	1.9–0.8

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
MB	2	12:09 of the 3rd	7:51	7:51	+0.027 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Laurent Brossoit

Shots faced: 43
Saves: 40
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.89
GSAx: -0.11

Domenic DiVincentiis

Shots faced: 21
Saves: 17
Allowed: 4
xGA: 3.06
GSAx: -0.94

Thomas Milic

Shots faced: 11
Saves: 8
Allowed: 3
xGA: 1.38
GSAx: -1.62

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:28Brett Seney (1–0)low · 53 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 2:02Penalty
1st 2:54Samuel Fagemo (1–1)5v4 · high · rebound · 24 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
1st 5:51Penalty
1st 6:50Joey Anderson (2–1)4v5 · high · 13 ft · beat Thomas Milic
1st 12:24Danny Zhilkin (2–2)low · 32 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
1st 14:41Penalty
1st 15:42Penalty
1st 16:49Penalty
1st 18:36Penalty
1st 19:13Samuel Savoie (3–2)5v4 · high · rebound · 7 ft · beat Thomas Milic
2nd 2:29Penalty
2nd 2:31David Gustafsson (3–3)5v4 · low · rebound · 14 ft · beat Laurent Brossoit
2nd 3:16Brett Seney (4–3)medium · 26 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
2nd 6:01Penalty
2nd 6:01Penalty
2nd 7:53Penalty
2nd 10:09Ryan Gagnier (5–3)low · 30 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 2:42Penalty
3rd 3:15Penalty
3rd 11:55Penalty
3rd 12:52Rem Pitlick (6–3)5v4 · medium · 17 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 13:25Penalty
3rd 14:22Joey Anderson (7–3)5v4 · high · 8 ft · beat Domenic DiVincentiis
3rd 15:15Penalty
3rd 16:24Penalty
3rd 16:24Penalty
3rd 16:37Penalty