Belleville Senators at Toronto Marlies

Coca-Cola Coliseum · Toronto, ON

Belleville Senators

3:4

Final / OT

Toronto Marlies

The sheet

BELTORSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals

Deserve to winexpected goals

44%56%

xG: 2.22.2
High danger: 23
Chances: 55
Shots: 2530

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

TOR above the lineBEL belowDots are goals. Pre-game 63% TOR.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

25Shots on goal30

5Scoring chances5

2High-danger chances3

2.20Expected goals2.15

By period

Per	SOG	SC	HD	xG
1st	11–5	4–0	2–0	1.4–0.2
2nd	6–15	1–3	0–2	0.4–1.3
3rd	7–9	0–2	0–1	0.3–0.6
OT	1–1	0–0	0–0	0.1–0.1

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal

Trailing	First behind by	Net empty from	Time left	Empty-net time	Worth
BEL	1	16:56 of the 3rd	3:04	1:07	+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Mads Søgaard

Shots faced: 30
Saves: 26
Allowed: 4
xGA: 2.15
GSAx: -1.85

Artur Akhtyamov

Shots faced: 25
Saves: 22
Allowed: 3
xGA: 2.20
GSAx: -0.80

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

1st 0:58Penalty
1st 1:45Penalty
1st 3:11Penalty
1st 5:51Mark Duarte (1–0)high · 13 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
1st 6:12Penalty
1st 6:12Penalty
1st 9:36Penalty
1st 17:42Arthur Kaliyev (2–0)grade A · rebound · 24 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
2nd 1:36Jacob Quillan (2–1)high · 10 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
2nd 9:11Penalty
2nd 9:11Penalty
2nd 10:46Penalty
2nd 15:15Penalty
3rd 2:29Cédric Paré (2–2)high · 9 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
3rd 4:49Penalty
3rd 13:10Penalty
3rd 15:57Benoit-Olivier Groulx (2–3)low · 37 ft · beat Mads Søgaard
3rd 18:03Lassi Thomson (3–3)low · 63 ft · beat Artur Akhtyamov
OT 1:43Matt Benning (3–4)low · 27 ft · beat Mads Søgaard