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‹ Saturday, December 20

Tucson Roadrunners at Abbotsford Canucks

Rogers Forum · Abbotsford, BC

Tucson Roadrunners
1:2
Final
Abbotsford Canucks

The sheet

TUCABBSolid with a pale centre = goal · outline = saved · area = expected goals
Deserve to winexpected goals
50%50%
xG
1.91.4
High danger
11
Chances
46
Shots
2617

Each club’s colour washes in from its own end; where they meet is what the chances say. Centre ice is the halfway mark, so the gap between the seam and the red line is the argument. Goals are excluded on purpose.

Expected goals, minute by minute

00.511.52P2P3
Cumulative expected goals · rings mark goals · dashed = goalie should be out, solid = goalie out

Win probability, as it happened

9050101st2nd3rd
ABB above the lineTUC belowDots are goals. Pre-game 47% ABB.

The same model the scoreboard runs during a live game, replayed from this game’s goal times. It knows the score, the clock and what the two clubs were expected to do before puck drop; on a live night it also reads the man advantage and an empty net.

Head to head

26Shots on goal17
4Scoring chances6
1High-danger chances1
1.87Expected goals1.43

By period

PerSOGSCHDxG
1st6–80–20–00.4–0.6
2nd12–62–30–10.8–0.6
3rd8–32–11–00.7–0.2

Away–home, in that order.

Pulling the goalie

TUC−10:005:0010:0015:0020:00
Solid bar = net should be emptyDashed = league-median pullHollow dot = empty-net goal
TrailingFirst behind byNet empty fromTime leftEmpty-net timeWorth
TUC116:56 of the 3rd3:043:04+0.052 pts

“Worth” is the standings points the empty net is expected to add, from that moment on, over pulling when AHL benches actually do. It is an expectation across every way the rest of the game could have gone, not a claim about this one result — a team can follow the rule perfectly and still lose by two.

In goal

Jiří Patera
Shots faced
26
Saves
25
Allowed
1
xGA
1.87
GSAx
+0.87
Jaxson Stauber
Shots faced
17
Saves
15
Allowed
2
xGA
1.43
GSAx
-0.57

Goals saved above expected is what the chances faced were worth minus what actually went in, so a positive number is work the shot quality did not account for. Empty-net shots have no goaltender and are left out.

Scoring and penalties

  • 1st 3:33Penalty
  • 1st 5:27Penalty
  • 2nd 5:00Chase Wouters (0–1)high · 8 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 6:02Sawyer Mynio (0–2)medium · 12 ft · beat Jaxson Stauber
  • 2nd 6:08Penalty
  • 2nd 6:08Penalty
  • 2nd 11:49Penalty
  • 2nd 17:50Penalty
  • 2nd 17:50Penalty
  • 3rd 2:18Penalty
  • 3rd 2:43Ben McCartney (1–2)5v4 · medium · 34 ft · beat Jiří Patera
  • 3rd 11:15Penalty
  • 3rd 18:47Penalty